Daily Newsletter

14 September 2023

Daily Newsletter

14 September 2023

US consumers get more relief as grocery prices retreat again

Headline inflation covering all items, however, accelerated in the US last month.

Simon Harvey September 14 2023

US consumers got some slight relief in August as grocery prices extended an easing trend from the highs of last year.

Food inflation, including in-home and out-of-home consumption measured by the consumer prices index series, rose 4.3% on average in the 12 months through August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday (13 September), compared to a peak of 11.4% in August last year.

The annualised rate was down from 4.9% in July and 5.7% in June.

Headline inflation, however, measured by the Bureau’s all-items index, accelerated to 3.7% over the 12 months, from 3.2% in July. The gauge tripled on a month-month level at 0.6% versus 0.2% in July.

Grocery prices for in-home consumption increased 3%, easing from 3.6% in July and 4.5% in June. The cost of eating out, in inflationary terms, cooled to 6.5%, from 7.1% and 7.7%, respectively.

Protein prices were flat in August from a year earlier, with a zero-inflation rate reported for meat, poultry, fish and eggs. The cost of cereals and bakery products, however, rose 6%, with prices for soft drinks up 4.8% and fruit and vegetables 2.1% higher. Dairy prices climbed 0.3% last month.

From July, overall food prices rose 0.2%, the same pace as in July. The in-home measure of grocery prices dipped to 0.2%, from 0.3% a month earlier.

The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.8% in August, while cereals and bakery products were up 0.5%.

In some added relief for consumers, dairy prices declined 0.4% in August from a month earlier, after rising 0.5% in July. The fruit and vegetables index fell 0.2%, as did the non-alcoholic beverages gauge.

The UK, where food and soft drinks prices have been rising much faster than the US, despite some recent easing, reports its figures for August next week, on 20 September.

The dairy and soy food sector will see rising demand for lactose-/gluten-free products

GlobalData estimates that the global dairy & soy food sector will grow at a CAGR of 17% during 2022–27. The healthy eating trend has encouraged consumers to seek alternatives to traditional dairy products. Plant-based dairy alternatives are often perceived as healthier due to their lower saturated fat content. Moreover, increasing awareness about food allergies and intolerances, coupled with consumers’ interest in alternative diets, will drive manufacturers to launch lactose- and gluten-free products.

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