Is the US government on a collision course with the country's packaged foods industry?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whom President-elect Donald Trump has nominated to head the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which has wide-ranging authority over the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), wants to significantly reduce ultra-processed foods from the American diet.
Direct conflict
Kennedy’s targeting of ultra-processed foods puts him in direct conflict with the major packaged foods companies (AKA ‘Big Food’) which generate a significant percentage of their revenues from ultra-processed foods. Processed and ultra-processed foods form the backbone of the consumer packaged foods industry, particularly in the US.
Although the FDA has no formal definition of ultra-processed foods, they are typically considered products with high levels of additives, colouring and preservatives. Some sources, such as Northeastern University’s Network Science Institute, say as much as 73% of the US food supply is ultra-processed.
If the US Senate approves his nomination - which in my analysis appears to be increasingly probable - RFK Jr. says he plans to reform the FDA and transform the food industry, starting with targeting processed and ultra-processed foods. Disruption is in the air.
Negative impact on health
Kennedy has strong opposition to ultra-processed foods, emphasising their negative impact on public health, including calling them a major contributor to the obesity epidemic in the US. According to the CDC (Center for Disease Control), about 40.3% of adults 20 and older are obese, based on a BMI (body mass index) of 30 or more. He also says ultra-processed foods are one of the main causes of the growing chronic health problem in the US, which includes ongoing increases in heart disease, diabetes and other serious medical conditions.
As one of his early agenda items, RFK Jr. says he wants to ban packaged foods companies from using certain food additives, such as red dye no. 3, potassium bromate, brominated vegetable oil and Propylparaben, which are commonly found in processed foods in the US but are often banned or restricted in other countries. Packaged cereals and snacks are two categories he’s particularly focused on.
California recently banned these additives. The ban begins in 2027.
Kennedy argues these chemicals and other food additives contribute to neuro-developmental and behavioural disorders in children and chronic diseases in the broader population.
RFK Jr. has also made a pledge to ban processed and ultra-processed foods from school lunch programmes throughout America, if he becomes head of HHS. He says these foods contribute to obesity, juvenile diabetes and other ailments in children.
The seed oil issue
Kennedy is also opposed to seed oils, which are commonly used in packaged food products sold in the US, and wants food processors and other sectors of the food industry to stop using them.
He says seed oils are contributing to the rise of chronic diseases such as heart disease, diabetes and obesity and should be replaced with alternatives. He argues, for example, that beef tallow, a rendered fat made from the fatty tissue surrounding the organs of cows, is a healthier alternative to seed oils.
Established nutritional science disagrees with his position on seed oils, saying that there’s no reason to avoid using them. But despite this, the anti-seed oil movement led by RFK Jr. and others, including some physicians and nutritionists, is a fast-growing trend in the US.
Interestingly, while Kennedy’s targeting of ultra-processed foods puts him in direct conflict with ‘Big Food,’ which (at least in the short-term) stands to lose the most from his policies because they are the chief producers and sellers of such packaged foods, these types of bans, in contrast, could be favourable to numerous smaller early-stage and emerging brand packaged foods companies, which seek to disrupt the big brands with healthier or better-for-you product versions.
President-elect Trump’s nomination of Kennedy to head HHS caught ‘Big Food’ by surprise - and the major food companies and industry trade associations are very concerned about his plans to reform the FDA and transform the food industry. RFK Jr. calls his overall plan MAHA (Make America Healthy Again), which is a take-off of Trump’s slogan MAGA (Make America Great Again).
Plans being monitored
Hostess Twinkie and Uncrustables-maker JM Smucker said this week it plans to closely monitor and assess any changes in food and nutrition regulations that RFK Jr. could implement.
Other big processed and ultra-processed food makers are doing the same. Many are voicing their opposition to Kennedy to their Republican allies in Congress and to members of President-elect Trump’s transition team directly.
Trump has expressed solid support for Kennedy’s plans when it comes to food and he could even receive support from a few Democrats like Senators Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren, who have advocated reforms similar to RFK’s for the FDA and the food industry it regulates.
My analysis is that unless something extremely significant to the negative comes up, RFK Jr. will be confirmed by the Senate by a narrow margin.
Additionally, the FDA under President Biden has also been undergoing some of the most aggressive changes and reforms in decades. Kennedy’s proposals are much more aggressive but there are numerous people inside the FDA who support what he says when it comes to food, despite their disagreements with him on other aspects of health, such as his views on vaccines and other issues.
Nearly a year ago I argued in this column that there has never been a more opportune time in the US for packaged food companies to make their products healthier.
I had no idea at the time that Donald Trump would win the presidency and that he would nominate Robery F. Kennedy Jr. to head HHS. And although what I argued in my January 2024 column was true then, it’s even more true now.
Aggressive reform agenda
Kennedy’s stated plans to reform the FDA and transform the food industry is the most aggressive reform agenda the US food system has seen in many decades.
His focus on processed and ultra-processed foods and food additives are just the tip of the spear. Kennedy also wants to reduce or even eliminate the use of pesticides in farming, reform the Advisory Committee for Dietary Guidelines system and process and economically incentivise regenerative agriculture. He also says he wants to turn the FDA inside out, with a focus on eliminating most of the cooperation between the agency and the food industry when it comes to regulation making.
Whether or not RFK Jr. will be able to achieve his bold agenda if he becomes HHS chief is yet to be seen. But he’s made it clear that he plans on disrupting the FDA and ‘Big Food,’ transforming the food industry in the US in ways not seen in most of our lifetimes.
A need to compromise
‘Big Food’ will need to decide its own agenda should Kennedy become head of HHS. My suggestion is they try to compromise rather than oppose any and all reform.
On his end, Kennedy will also need to compromise with food companies and the industry because sometimes getting half a loaf instead of a full loaf is better than getting nothing in politics.
President-elect Trump has also promised Americans that he will get the price of groceries down for them. Many Americans voted for him based primarily on this and other economic reasons having to do with inflation.
As such, any regulatory reforms at the FDA that might result in higher grocery prices will be scrutinised by Trump’s team based on this promise to voters. And you can bet that one of the chief arguments against massive reform will be that it will lead to an increase in the price of food at the grocery store.
just-food columnist Victor Martino is a California-based strategic marketing and business development consultant, analyst, entrepreneur and writer, specialising in the food and grocery industry. He is available for consultation at: victorrmartino415@gmail.com and https://twitter.com/VictorMartino01.
