EU cereal prices are expected to remain high in 2012 with stocks continuing to fall, the European Commission has forecast.
It predicts that usable EU cereal production between July 2011 and June 2012 will remain largely unchanged from the previous year at around 275m tonnes, with a 1.1% fall in the cultivation area balanced by a yield increase of 1%.
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“As a consequence, cereal markets tend to remain relatively tight in the EU and a further reduction in stocks can be expected,” the Commission warned – noting EU stocks also fell by 17m tonnes the previous year, partly because the EU exported a net 18.5m tonnes.
Even if exports fell in 2011/12, “tight world supplies” would make it hard for the EU to obtain cheap cereal imports, which could lead to “higher cereal prices”, it added. Poor weather has reduced northern European cereal plantings this autumn.
Looking at detailed forecasts for 2011-12, the Commission predicts usable EU production of 126.4mt of wheat, almost exactly the same as in 2010-11. There would be a increase in maize production to 60.8m tonnes from 57.2m tonnes; and a fall in barley production from 52.7m tonnes to 50.9m tonnes.
